The myth
24-month contracts are a terrible choice for customers - the argument runs.
It leaves them locked into a network for longer than they want and at the mercy of potentially poor reception & poor customer service for 2 years. People have mortgages that last for less time!
A lot of people cannot predict what will happen to their lives and mobile phone usage in 3 months - let alone 24. What if the contracts no longer suits them?
Worst of all, very few 24-month contracts allow a handset upgrade mid-contract, meaning that, already by the end of the first year, most customers’ handsets are woefully out-of-date and, in some cases, in pretty poor shape as regards battery life and general wear & tear.
Here’s uSwitch’s advice on the matter:
“Try to avoid signing a 24 month contract, even if it means that your chosen contract phone will be free - it will be another two years before you qualify for an upgrade or can switch provider.”
The reality
Ok - I’ll be honest. This is a “demi-myth”. There’s no way anyone could argue wholeheartedly in favour of 24-month contracts and a lot of the above criticisms are true - to an extent (see below).
There’s just one inconvenient fact: when it comes to cost, they’re often the only rational choice. Comparing 18 to 24 month contracts at the same tariff allowance levels shows there is usually at least £5/month difference (sometimes up to £10) - meaning that by opting for an 18-month contract, you’re choosing to pay at least £90 more over the length of the contract.
In addition, 24-month contracts simultaneously minimise the upfront costs to customers who choose more expensive handsets. Although in general it’s almost always economically rational to pay as much as possible upfront, 24-month contracts do limit this one-off payment.
billmonitor can easily be accused of playing the “rational economic” argument here and ignoring other salient factors but I’ll try to explain the reasoning. Let’s take each criticism in turn, beginning with the most salient.
The proof
Problem 1: Can’t predict what will happen in 24 months
Validity: Naturally no-one can. billmonitor forecasts how you will likely use your phone, within safe margins of error - but of course life changes. However, getting a larger contract actually makes it easier to handle larger life changes and leave a safety margin. By choosing a longer contract term, you can pay less for the same amount (or often more) minutes, texts and data, leaving plenty of “savings” to cope with future usage changes.
What you can do: Contrary to received wisdom: The longer your contract term - the more financial flexibility you can build in for the the unpredictable events in life, which might change how you use your phone.
Problem 2: Can’t upgrade to latest handset when you like - and handsets don’t last 2 years
Validity: Is it worth paying an additional £90 (or indeed up to £180) over the course of your contract in order to be able to get a new handset half a year earlier? Only the individual can answer - billmonitor doesn’t think so. How likely is the handset to die before the contract term is up? Well - this depends on many factors, mainly due to individual usage and how well you take care of your phone. In general, it should be possible, nay likely, that it will last the full term - barring major damage or loss (which are not relevant to this argument).
What you can do: Critically assess whether getting access to the latest handset 6 months sooner is worth paying £90-£180 more. Should be a simple cost-benefit analysis for anyone.
Problem 3: Can’t escape if network reception is poor
Validity: In many ways, a very valid concern. There is little recourse to change anything due to poor reception once in contract (unless the device is at fault). If you live in a dead reception area, you may be stuck for 24 months. Equally, if you move home during those 2 years, there’s no guarantee at all reception will be as good as where you used to live.
What you can do: Check reception quality via friends in your area and make sure you at least glance over the operator’s network coverage maps (even though they may be overly generous, they will quickly give you a rule of thumb). The best advice on how to avoid the “no reception” trap I’ve seen, is via Ken Lo here. You can always use the 7-day “cooling off” period, if you bought online or remotely - so test your phone and test it early!
Problem 4: Can’t escape if customer service is poor
Validity: Can be very valid - especially as there is little chance to test customer service early on during a contract. However, I don’t believe this is a valid reason not to sign up for 24 months - there is a lot of online info to help re: best network for customer service either via customer reviews or other public data (see last week’s post on networks with most/fewest complaints). In the end, it’s only 6 more months until you can change and I doubt customer service is the major influencing choice for many.
What you can do: . Good service is often rewarded and bad service punished on the web - use it as a valuable resource. Otherwise, I’m afraid, short of registering complaints with the network and consumer responsibility groups like Ofcom or Consumer Direct - there’s little that can be donw except grin abd bear it!
Some important notes
Do you agree?
It’s not the mainstream line to be in favour of 24-month contracts - in many ways a very unpopular product. Do you agree that they are better value and therefore grudgingly the best choice. Or do you choose 12-, 18-month contracts (or even PAYG) out of protest or for one of the reasons given above? I’d love to hear your thoughts! Comment below.…
Ofcom recently released data on the number of customer complaints it had received about each of the major mobile operators. Customer complaints run the gamut of “mis-selling, billing errors, lack of service and customer service problems” and some of the examples Ofcom gives of what “mis-selling” actually means, are truly awful (though they appear to be often due to retailers, rather than the networks themselves).
Here is how each provider performed in terms of numbers of complaints per 1000 customers between October 2010 and February 2011:
Three UK comes out worst with 0.15 complaints per 1000 customers. This number is marginally higher than the runner-up worst which was T-mobile but more than 3 times higher than the best provider, which was O2. However, it’s worth pointing out that overall mobile operators have by far the lowest complaints of any of the three major telecoms categories - Three UK has fewer complaints than even the best fixed line broadband or phone suppliers.
So what does this mean for customers?
This is just one more criteria to consider when choosing your network - but it should not be the only one, as Ofcom themselves highlight:
“In addition to information about telecoms complaints, consumers may wish to consider a range of information when thinking about a communications service, such as price and network quality of service. For example, Ofcom accredits price comparison websites and also publishes information about broadband speeds.”
Currently, billmonitor does not include these or other qualitative criteria in its results - but we’re working on how this might be included in a reliable an impartial manner for the future.
Over to you…
What’s the most important criteria when you choose a mobile network? Will you be less likely to choose/stay with Three UK after seeing this data? Or is personal experience or the experience of friends and family a better indicator? Finally - have you ever made or wanted to make a complaint to Ofcom about a specific provider - and if so, why?
I’ve discussed how fear of exceeding our allowance plays a part in why customers overestimate how many minutes they need. But there are other leading factors as well.
We created a short infographic animation encapsulating how people choose their contracts based on their calling behaviour, which explains in more detail just why customers get it wrong. Pay attention to the first section in particular:
So, variation in our calling behaviour is another major factor. When coupled with fear of paying for minutes outside of allowance, that in itself accounts for the majority of overestimation.
Additionally, I would venture that many people simply cannot convert their calls into “minutes used”. It’s not a natural mental calculation as few people know the average call length (it’s 2 min, 35 secs) nor do they check time before and after every call. If anything, I would predict that the emotional and focused nature of a human conversation, most likely leads to overestimating the length it takes - which could account for a further overestimation.
Finally, not many people calibrate their usage estimations based on their actual bills - and possibly very few actually check their monthly billing statements at all. Top of head estimations of time taken are almost always inaccurate - we underestimate the time needed for certain things (especially when planning projects), while overestimating others.
What about estimating other usage, like mobile data?
The situation for other usage mirrors that for minutes: I defy anyone to tell me how much mobile data they use in an average month! Or to accurately estimate how much data they use for e-mail vs. browsing vs. audio/video streaming on their mobile. If we’re already so bad at estimating call length, mobile data usage will be even less well understood and lead to further gross overestimations.
Contrary to many recent reports and public opinon, 500MB is still a very generous fair usage policy limit for most - just 5% exceed this in an average month. That still leaves 1.65M subscribers angry and it’s no wonder they use the internet to share their frustrations. Nevertheless, many of us overestimate - and those who do use more also overestimate their own representativeness for the average user.
“Isn’t it less ‘overestimation’ and more that customers are being forced into large contracts to afford their desired smartphone?”
This is one objection I’ve heard a lot from multiple user comments on The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, thisismoney.co.uk, so I thought it worth elaborating. It is indeed unfortunate that a minority of customers who choose high-end smartphones find it difficult to find a tariff where they pay less than they do currently - billmonitor is frequently unable to help these customers. Although, 47% can get an iPhone 4 and still save on average £156.24 a year, that still means more than half cannot.
Nevertheless, the national billmonitor mobile report explicitly took account of this situation . Customers forced to move up a tariff due to their handset choice, are not deemed as “wasting” money. Their choice of handset has prevented them from getting the right tariff to precisely match their usage but they are not included in the 52% who have the wrong contract with a tariff that’s too large. Choosing a larger tariff to lower the overall cost of ownership is fully rational: it’s not wasting if that’s what you really want.
What’s worth bearing in mind is that smartphones still make up less than 30% of new handset purchase choices for those on contract - and a smaller proportion still are only economical at higher tariff levels. Additionally, those with smartphones may still be overestimating ie. they may still be choosing tariff allowances higher than they need to get the lowest cost of ownership.
In summary - there’s no excuse! It really is an overestimate and it’s the equivalent of buying 4 times as many groceries as you’ll eat in a week, every week - and subsequently throwing three quarters in the bin at the end of the week.
The myth
The worst thing you can do is to go over your monthly limit. If you keep getting massive bills way above what you signed up for on your tariff it’s probably because you’ve been calling, texting or surfing on your mobile too much.
Right?
Surely, media reports and press releases such as Which? Mobile’s from December must have it right:
Around 10 million mobile phone users regularly pay for extra calls, texts
and data usage on top of their monthly line rental, according to new
research by Which? Mobile.
The reality
Come on! We all have hundreds (sometimes thousands!) of minutes and texts on our plans – not to mention increasingly huge data plans. Do you really use them up – ever?
The truth is 13 million subscribers are overestimating how many calls they’ll need by about fourfold. Let me repeat that – they have four times the number of minutes and texts than we really need. From over 28,000 bills from customers that have performed bill analysis on www.billmonitor.com, the billmonitor team has found that this is a systematic miscalculation made by just under half of all subscribers. billmonitor can only speculate why this might be: maybe we’ve been trained by media reports like the above to be afraid of going over our limit or maybe it’s because we just hate the idea of going over our monthly allowance so much that we’ve hugely overcompensated by getting bloated monthly tariffs.
So due to these excess minutes so many of us get – the largest saving 52% of us on the wrong mobile contracts can make is simply to get a smaller monthly tariff. It’s that simple. The majority of users who never go over their monthly limit on texts and calls, can save on average £200.17 a year each, or £2.62 billion a year collectively, by simply choosing a smaller, cheaper mobile tariff next time they come up for renewal.
Getting tariffs that are too big isn’t the only problem faced by customers (see below - a minority of users do actually exceed their allowances) - but it is by far the most salient and common. Stay tuned for the follow-up post: Billmonitor mythbusting No.2: “24 month contracts are bad choices for customers”. Alternatively, for the full information and statitstics read our full national billmonitor mobile report here.
The proof
Which? Mobile are overstating the case for going over our allowances and underestimating the much more likely case that users simply have tariffs with allowances that are much too large for them. To be specific – billmonitor knows that 74% of mobile subscribers (24 million people) have NEVER gone over their monthly allowance on calls and could save by downgrading to a cheaper mobile contract next time around. That leaves 26%, or about 8.6 million people, who have exceeded their calling allowance in an average month – roughly in the ballpark of what Which? Mobile claim.
What Which? Mobile doesn’t mention, however, is that only 5.85% (less than 2 million people) ever spend more than a fiver on local mobile calls over and above their allowance (less than 2% spend more than £5 on extra texts). This means that the real number of people who need to worry about exceeding their allowance is much less than they claim. There’s no doubt that for the minority that do get some kind of “bill shock” when they exceed their allowance, it’s an awful experience – but it’s worth remembering that will only be a tiny minority of less than 5%.
The “Moral” of the story is if you NEVER exceed your monthly calls or texts allowance – it’s time to consider a cheaper, more suitable contract that won’t have you paying more than you need month after month. It’s counterintuitive but it’s not calling or texting too much that leads to higher than expected bills – it’s usually lots of other stuff. You can do a bill analysis on billmonitor to see if you’re underusing your minutes or check your last few bills yourself and call up your network.
Over to you
What do you think about this problem? Are you afraid of exceeding your minutes but never actually do so? Or do you feel this problem isn’t relevant? We’d love to hear your views - feel free to comment below.
A big thanks
We had a frankly overwhelming reaction to the launch of the national billmonitor mobie report yesterday - for which a big thank you to everyone. It was fantastic to see reactions from the press and online publications, including the BBC and almost all the major national newspapers (not all of which I’ll link to here - but you can see all the press coverage here) - as well as some excellent reactions from delighted customers who’d had their moment of “mobile bill enlightenment” and couldn’t help but share with the Twitosphere.
We can now finally reveal why there’s been such silence on the blog over the last 2 months. The billmonitor team has been hard at work finalising the national billmonitor mobile report - a timely piece of research that uncovers how 76% of UK mobile subscribers are wasting on average £194.71 a year, amounting to £4.899 billion each year for the whole of the UK. To put that into perspective, that’s more than one third* of mobile retail revenue (excl. VAT) left on the table each year by over 25 million mobile post-pay customers.
The reason we can be so sure about these figures is that they’re based on real, anonymised customer mobile phone bills. 28,417 mobile bills to be exact. This was not “survey data” from qualitative research - but factual customer billing data. The analysis itself was carried out using state-of-the-art statistical analysis implemented by the billmonitor team together with billmonitor’s science advisers, Professor Chris Holmes and Dr Nicolai Meinshausen (both from Oxford University). For a full methodology, please see page 3 of the report.
How do we define “waste” in this context? billmonitor’s definition is the difference between how much a customer could be paying on the right contract in the current market compared with what they are currently actually paying. The “right contract” is simply a contract (including bundles) that best matches how a customer uses their phone and whichever contract preferences they have (eg. handset, operator, contract length etc.). In other words, the right contract is one where a customer pays no more than they should.
To return to the numbers: they are certainly substantial and billmonitor does not quote them lightly. Although many commentators are aware that the combination of a) market complexity and b) the inability of customers to estimate their usage, present serious problems for the average subscriber, this is the first time a real average wastage amount, together with a percentage of customers who are complicit in this wasted spend has been calculated. Not only that - but billmonitor can also reveal just how this 76% of customers breaks down and how much each group is wasting individually:
1. 52% of customers wasting money are on a tariff that’s too large for them, using on average just one quarter of their monthly calling allowance
Total waste: £2.62 billion
2. 29% of customers wasting money are on too small a tariff, wasting money on out of allowance calls, texts, data usage as well as other costs that could be reduced with a larger tariff
Total waste: £1.53 billion
3. 19% have the right level of inclusive minutes but are wasting money by not optimising free benefits, data & text allowances as well as other costs, or taking advantage of lower costs from 24 month contracts
Total waste: £0.74 billion
Rather than revealing all the findings in one blog post, we recommend you read the full contents of the report for yourself here.
We will publish more in-depth posts covering other chapters and sections of the report over the coming days and weeks, together with more extended commentary on some of the aspects. But more than this, we’d love to use the blog posts to generate some discussion from readers who will surely have an opinion on many of the aspects of the report. To begin the debate we’d love to know:
We fully expect to be challenged on the data and welcome all opinions, contradictions, disagreements and alternative interpretations.
Finally - if you want to make sure you personally avoid the mistakes that three quarters of us routinely make when choosing a contract, try a free bill analysis for yourself.
*Changed from “equivalent to 44% of” - 44% referred to percentage of their mobile bill that is wasted by the average subscriber in the 76% group that is wasting - however, including the 24% who aren’t wasting, the amount of total mobile retail revenue wasted is a roughly 10% less.
How hard is it to choose a mobile contract these days? At last glance, billmonitor saw a total of 12,707,607 possible mobile deal combinations – that’s an inordinately huge number for any individual to compare. Add to that the difficulty of knowing how you use your phone, which handset you’d like, whether you trust the salesperson grinning at you from the shopfloor or even how your own life is going to change in the next 18 months and you’ve got a pretty difficult decision to make for an average cost of over £700 over the lifetime of a mobile contract!
There are any number of different ways we can be misled when choosing and here are some of the most common pitfalls:
1. Choosing a manual repayment cashback deal - It may seem a good money-saving idea at the time but if you choose a cashback deal on a new mobile where the only way to redeem your money is to send off your bills at a precise time (or stick to other onerous clauses in the smallprint) - then you’re bound to forget at least one bill to send in. Of course, by that point it’s too late and you’re stuck on a bloated contract for 18 months with very little recourse.
Billmonitor advises: if it sounds too good to be true – it often is, don’t choose short-term gain in favour of long-term savings.
2. Being bombarded with misinformation - typically, all the people involved when you buy a new mobile are better informed than you are about the availability of deals, the quality of the handset, the strength of reception on the network you choose, the likelihood you’ll ever need insurance (hint: you probably don’t!), how many minutes, texts and data you need in your allowance etc.. Unfortunately, those who are better informed often use it to their advantage to rip you off.
Billmonitor advises: inform yourself before you enter the mobile fray. Don’t be caught out and make sure you know enough about what you want and need not to have the wool pulled over your eyes.
3. Death by a thousand cuts - That tiny but irritating surcharge for your paper bill (it’s your bill isn’t it?? How can they charge your for it?), forgetting to turn off your data while abroad (one of the nastiest surprises – even if the EU have now capped the maximum charge operators can make on this usage) or realising that Freephone numbers aren’t free at all for mobile users (grrrrrr!). These small charges add up in the aggregate and mean you get inflated monthly bills.
Billmonitor advises: it’s very hard to avoid all the little nasty surprises but we’ll be attempting to warn you of some of the worst ones throughout this blog. Subscribe to stay informed!
4. Not checking if your new network’s reception covers your home or work – There’s nothing worse than that moment just after you’ve scoured the deals from all around, chosen your ideal handset, for the right price and cherry-picked exactly the right bundles for international calling and roaming – then you get home and try to use your phone for the first time only to realise you’re in one of the blackout zones for your network and the top-right of the screen can’t even muster a single bar of reception.
Billmonitor advises: Most networks have their own reception coverage maps on their websites. Do a spot check for key postcodes you’ll be at often such as work, home, parents etc. and make sure you don’t accidentally step into the 90s each time you come home or arrive at work.
5. Choosing a longer contract than you want – It’s always tempting to reduce your monthly payments by extending the length of your contract – especially if you’re buying a new smartphone. However, as the EU legislation to be brought in as of May 2011 recognises, there’s a trade-off between lower payments and flexibility. It’s hard enough knowing what’s going to happen tomorrow, let alone how your life will change in 18 months time.
Billmonitor advises: Be open-minded about your contract length and clear about the benefits of shorter or longer contracts. You should also try to choose a contract from a network that allows you to change your allowances and bundles up or down to meet your changing needs. We’ll keep you informed who the most pliable networks are.
6. Getting caught by the hard sell – You know you’re near the end of your contract or you’ve just lost your phone and all you want is to get something fast. You get called by a retailer or walk in yourself. There’s only one requirement - you need a phone with GPS because you’re sick of getting lost all the time. You ask specifically for this feature when the nice man calls up asking if you’re interested in the latest deal – he assures you it has “maps” as an app on the phone. Not wanting to spend too much time investigating further, and ignoring that the salesman has not mentioned any other possible phones, you buy it right there on the spot. Naturally, when it arrives it turns out the maps service is user-directed and you actually need to know where you are at any given time to find yourself on the map – completely useless. But of course the smallprint means you can’t return it and you don’t have the time to go through the hassle of arguing anyway…
Billmonitor advises: Only buy from those you trust, sleep on any decision you think may need time and sense-check your decision with friends if necessary.
It’s been a while since the blog has been active but that doesn’t mean things haven’t been moving on apace at billmonitor. For one thing, you’ll be hearing a lot more from myself, Nick Wright, writing about the latest mobile news, great mobile and money-saving tips and generally giving you updates from billmonitor hq in Oxford.
The billmonitor team have been hard at work uncovering some incredible findings to be bound into a hard-hitting report destined to shake up your view of mobile and shed new light on how we spend and use our mobiles. Most importantly though - we’ll have unique advice on the best ways to save money when choosing your next mobile phone contract. The report is based on the aggregate analysis of thousands of anonymised mobile phone bills and as such represenst the only impartial, comprehensive analysis ever done on this scale.
Stay tuned in the coming weeks for more on this but be sure there will be more regular posts on other topics close to your heart.